As Threads reaches its 20-month milestone recently, discussions about the potential for growth and the noticeable decline of the platform formerly known as Twitter continue to swirl. It is essential to assess the current state of the real-time social media market and examine the growth trajectories of Threads, X, and Bluesky. Understanding where these platforms stand can provide insights into their future prospects and user engagement strategies.

Is Threads poised to overtake X in the competitive landscape of social media?

Absolutely! The momentum of user growth for Threads is notably more robust:

As illustrated in this chart, Threads has experienced a consistent and accelerating surge in user adoption since its launch in July 2023. Currently, the app boasts approximately 320 million monthly active users, reflecting strong download momentum. Projections indicate that Threads is likely to surpass 400 million users by the end of this year, showcasing its positive growth trajectory.

While this growth is impressive, it still leaves Threads significantly behind X, which reported claiming 600 million active users as of last month. This figure represents a substantial audience base; however, X has only managed to increase its user count by approximately 50 million in the past year, in stark contrast to the 200 million new users added by Threads.

This stark difference in growth rates is noteworthy, as Threads, being the newer platform, has shown a much higher rate of adoption. This is a positive indicator for its long-term potential in the social media arena. The rapid user acquisition of Threads suggests that it is well-positioned for sustained growth in the competitive landscape, even if it does not surpass X this year.

Based on the current metrics, it seems unlikely that Threads will catch up with X this year unless there is a considerable surge in its growth momentum. Threads has recently shifted its focus to sports and real-time content, which are among the most discussed topics on X. This strategic pivot could potentially boost its growth rates significantly.

Meanwhile, Bluesky is also experiencing gradual growth, although it remains considerably behind Threads and X in terms of user numbers. The user base of Bluesky increased from 5 million in February of last year to around 35 million currently, adding another 5 million in just the first four months of this year. While this indicates ongoing interest and signups, the growth momentum has notably slowed compared to the explosive growth of the last quarter of 2024.

During that period, Bluesky was adding an impressive 5 million users per month for four consecutive months. This current slowdown in growth suggests that Bluesky’s initial momentum may have peaked, leaving Threads and X to compete for social media dominance. However, any misstep from either platform could provide Bluesky with an opportunity to regain traction.

In addition, it’s worth mentioning that Mastodon, another decentralized social media platform, currently has fewer than 900,000 active users, which further underscores the competitive landscape.

Ultimately, the primary competition in terms of mass appeal is between X and Threads. Analyzing the growth charts indicates that Threads is on a promising trajectory to potentially outpace X in the long run, especially given X’s recent sluggish growth and the questionable nature of its reported user data. The conflicting usage statistics shared by X make it challenging to ascertain the accuracy of these figures.

Based on the information provided by Elon Musk and his team, Threads appears to be on track to exceed X’s monthly user counts by the end of next year. However, a shift in user momentum could result in Threads achieving this milestone even sooner if the right strategies are employed.

Unless Meta encounters a significant setback that derails its progress, Threads seems well-positioned to maintain its growth trajectory.