Brandon Fletcher
Millennials in America often express their frustrations over significant challenges: entering a job market devastated by the 2008 financial crisis, grappling with complex and burdensome student loan debts, and dealing with an ongoing association with quirky music trends and meme culture. one notable positive development has emerged.
A comprehensive analysis of medical data from over 85 million U.S. adults, conducted by healthcare experts and data scientists at the Epic Health Research Network, reveals a significant decrease in shingles cases among adults under 35. Researchers attributed this generational difference in shingles occurrences—a condition caused by the reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus, which also leads to chickenpox—to the implementation of the U.S. chickenpox vaccination program that started in 1995. Essentially, the vaccination initiative is proving effective.
The oldest group analyzed by Epic’s researchers consisted of older Generation X individuals born between 1968 and 1975, who experienced shingles at a rate of 181.9 cases per 10,000 people. This figure is approximately 26 times higher than that of the youngest adults born between 2006 and 2008. For millennials born between 1986 and 1990, the rate significantly dropped to 76.7 cases per 10,000 people, more than a 50% reduction. The most remarkable decline occurred just after the 1995 policy took effect for newborns. Good news extends to Generation Z as well, as the rate fell sharply by the mid-90s to merely 17.3 cases per 10,000.
“This shift aligns with the first birth cohorts that became eligible for routine chickenpox vaccinations. we did not assess whether these patients had received the vaccine,” noted the Epic research team.
The Impact of Vaccination Policies
Researchers at Epic, including physician Sam Butler from the clinical informatics division and data scientist Joe Deckert, linked the significant reduction in shingles cases among individuals born just before the 1995 vaccination policy to the flexible implementation of the policy.
“The 1995 rollout included catch-up vaccinations for older children who were susceptible, creating a gradual transition instead of a strict cutoff based on birth year,” Butler, Deckert, and their colleagues explained. As a result, the benefits extended to slightly older age groups, including some individuals aged 35 to 39.
The drastic decline for individuals born in 1995 or later is particularly noteworthy. The drop in shingles cases between the 1991–1995 age group and the 1996–2000 group was striking, plummeting from 45.5 to 17.3 cases per 10,000—a remarkable 62% decrease. This shift was sharper than any other observed between adjacent cohorts,” they emphasized.
This data strongly supports the hypothesis that early childhood vaccinations against chickenpox significantly reduce the risk of developing shingles later in life compared to acquiring natural immunity through infection.
Implications for Vaccination Policies
Clearly, the findings from Epic’s research provide valuable insights for those advocating for the continuation of early childhood vaccination policies in the U.S. Shingles can lead to not only painful rashes and blisters but also long-lasting nerve pain and other serious health issues. This vaccination initiative has faced challenges, particularly since Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.—an anti-vaccine activist and advocate for alternative health practices—established a vaccine recommendation panel last year that recommended against the standard combination of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) vaccines for children under four.
Fortunately, a U.S. District Judge in Massachusetts ruled against RFK Jr.’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in March, upholding the childhood vaccination policy following a lawsuit filed by the American Academy of Pediatrics. Despite this, it remains evident from ongoing court documents that the department continues to pursue its agenda.
As HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon remarked last spring: “HHS anticipates this judge’s decision will be overturned, similar to previous attempts to limit the governance of the Trump administration.”
Daniel Mercer
