Unsure what’s happening at Reddit HQ, however they apparently see one thing of their platform that others, very logically, don’t.

Final week, Enterprise Insider reported that Reddit’s trying to launch its long-awaited IPO in 2024, at a goal valuation of $15 billion.

To place that into context, X, which has 250 million each day customers (versus Reddit’s 70 million DAU), and can herald over $2 billion in advert income in 2023 (versus Reddit’s $800 million) is at the moment valued at $19 billion.

Snapchat, with 406 million DAU, greater than 5x Reddit’s person base, is valued at $27 billion.

Primarily based on the comparisons at hand, there’s seemingly not a lot logic to Reddit’s valuation goal. However then once more, perhaps it’s simply that, an formidable goal, and Reddit will ultimately need to settle at a lower cost.

However the true worth of Reddit is probably going method lower than it’s going to confess.

The troublesome half in assessing Reddit is making an attempt to measure precisely how properly it’s going, as a result of whereas it has elevated its energetic person numbers over the previous few years, rising from 52 million DAU in 2021 to 70 million now, it really had much more customers 4 years again.

In 2019, Reddit reported 430 million month-to-month energetic customers. Which is rather a lot completely different from each day engagement, however primarily based on normal platform averages, that might have meant that Reddit did have round 200 million each day actives at one stage. 

However again then, Reddit was a much more lawless entity. Reddit was the house of leaked celeb nudes, and horrific gore content material, which, whereas clearly nice for engagement, was not conducive to model security, and subsequent advert spend. In an effort to tackle this, and transfer in direction of an IPO, Reddit carried out more durable moderation necessities, which additionally noticed 1000’s of the platform’s most offensive subreddits shut down totally. Reddit’s general viewers shrank, but it surely’s now way more sanitized, way more protected, and consequently, it’s now bringing in considerably extra advert spend. 

However its development continues to be comparatively restricted. For instance, whereas Reddit’s including customers at a price of 6 million DAU per 12 months, Snapchat’s including 50 million every year, whereas Fb, which is already shut market saturation, is including 70 million extra each day actives annually.

Reddit ought to be including extra if it sees itself as a $15 billion firm, whereas its advert run price, at $800 million, can also be properly behind others within the sector.

Reddit adverts do present promise in sure niches, and it stays an necessary connector to engaged, focused shoppers. Reddit dialog has additionally turn into a priceless supply of actual world perception, but it surely’s not a primary mover within the digital advert house as but.

Can it turn into one? Personally, I don’t see it including sufficient customers to be an actual focus, however perhaps, if it retains shifting on its present path, it might probably turn into an even bigger consideration for extra manufacturers.

Nevertheless it’s not but. And whereas Reddit can even argue that its person information is vastly useful for conversational AI improvement, I don’t assume that any market analyst goes to see $15 billion in worth in its numbers.

Will Steve Huffman and Co. attempt anyway? Huffman has stated that he’s a fan of Elon Musk’s method, which is all about radically optimistic projections, sensible or not. So perhaps he’ll push forward. However I think that 2024 might be a 12 months of disappointment if he does.