Flight Cancellation Rates: What to Expect Next

Key Highlights

• Shutdown Duration: The government shutdown has lasted for a record 39 days, impacting various sectors.
• Flight Disruptions: Travelers are experiencing significant delays and cancellations, particularly in air travel.
• Staffing Issues: Many essential federal employees, including air traffic controllers, are working without pay.
• Flight Reductions: Air traffic reductions are being implemented, with potential increases if the shutdown continues.

The government has been shutdown for a record 39 days, and many aspects of everyday life that hinge on government funding are feeling the pinch. One of the industries hit the hardest is air travel.

Due to the shutdown, travelers around the country are facing mounting lines at security checkpoints and thousands of flight delays and cancellations as air travel tries to operate in a restricted capacity.

As of 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, there were already more than 7,500 total delays within, into or out of the U.S., according to FlightAware data. Delta Airlines, which has already canceled more than 450 flights today told NBC News that more cancellations were expected.

What are the recent flight cancellation statistics?

On Saturday alone, there were 1,566 cancellations and a total of 7,531 delays, while Friday saw 1,025 cancellations and 7,017 delays. The numbers reflect a sharp increase in disruptions following the Federal Aviation Administration’s decision.

Recent flight cancellations have surged significantly, highlighting the impact of the shutdown on air travel.

The flight cancellations are roughly at the level you would see in a light snow storm, according to United Airlines. But the delays and cancellations are only set to grow from here as the shutdown continues, and they might get even worse than expected due to an actual winter storm forming in the Midwest. “Dangerous to impossible travel conditions will develop” in some parts of Illinois on the night bridging Sunday to Monday due to the snow expected from the storm, according to the latest advisories.

In the event of a government shutdown, many federal employees lose their jobs. But some that are considered essential to the protection of life and property, like air traffic controllers and TSA agents, are required to work without pay or additional support staff. In the absence of their paycheck, many of these employees resort to additional work to make up for the loss. In many cases, the air traffic controllers—who were already working mandatory overtime six days a week—call in sick. As many as 20-40% of controllers are not showing up for work, according to FAA administrator Bryan Bedford’s estimates from earlier this week.

“We had 81 staffing triggers throughout the national airspace yesterday, that means controllers weren’t coming to work,” secretary of transportation Sean Duffy said Sunday on CNN. “It’s only going to get worse.”

Air traffic controllers are the backbone of safe air travel, and when they take off of work in droves, that puts pressure on an already fragile system.

How are air traffic reductions being implemented?

The FAA has initiated flight reductions at 40 major airports across the country, starting at 4% on Friday. If the shutdown persists, this could rise to 6% by Tuesday, Nov. 11, 8% by Nov. 13, and 10% by Nov. 14.

The FAA’s approach to managing air traffic demand involves a systematic reduction in flight numbers due to staffing challenges.

Duffy warned that the reductions could hike up to 20% if the shutdown continues, despite holiday travel looming in the horizon with Thanksgiving later this month.

“I look to the two weeks before Thanksgiving, you’re going to see air travel be reduced to a trickle,” Duffy said on CNN. The secretary had also warned of “mass chaos” at a press conference earlier this week.

The measures are certainly unprecedented.

“I’m not aware in my 35-year history in the aviation market where we’ve had a situation where we’re taking these kinds of measures,” Bedford said at a press conference this week.

The end could be near. According to CNN, Senate majority leader John Thune indicated that there might be an initial vote on Sunday for a working plan to reopen the government. The plan does not include an extension to the Affordable Care Act subsidies that Democrats have been negotiating for, but it reportedly guarantees a future Senate vote on them. Not every one is on board with just a promise though.

“I don’t think that the House Democratic Caucus is prepared to support a promise, a wink and a prayer from folks who have been devastating the health care of the American people for years,” House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries told NBC on Sunday.